The draft state budget of Ukraine for 2026 will be based on an alternative macro scenario that assumes the continuation of the war for another year.

This was announced by Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko during a presentation of the government's action program.

«Our baseline macroeconomic scenario anticipates the end of the war in 2025. The alternative scenario envisions the continuation of the war in 2026. At this point, we must be pragmatic. Therefore, we plan to continue military operations throughout the 26th year,» Marchenko noted.

Accordingly, this requires external financing amounting to $45 billion, the minister emphasized. This funding is not only for covering the deficit but also for debt repayment.

He pointed out that this need is currently not fully met, but negotiations are already underway with key partners - the G7 countries and the European Union.

«I believe that together with our key stakeholders, we will find an acceptable way to address these needs,» the minister assured.

Regarding fiscal policy, Marchenko stressed that the primary task is to ensure the preservation of the budget's revenue share in GDP.

«The key challenge is to maintain the revenue share in GDP. We expect to achieve this through measures to formalize the economy and reboot fiscal authorities. This is the focus of our discussions with the International Monetary Fund team,» the minister added.