The Ukrainian government has approved the forecast for key economic and social indicators for the years 2026-2028, outlining two primary development scenarios.

This information was detailed in resolution No. 946, adopted on August 6, 2025.

According to the first scenario, the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, with inflation projected at 8.6%. The alternative scenario anticipates GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation at 9.9%.

The more optimistic scenario forecasts an acceleration of GDP growth to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, while inflation is expected to decrease to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

The less optimistic scenario estimates GDP growth of 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, with inflation rates of 9.7% and 7.5%.

Under the first scenario, the number of employed individuals aged 15-70 is projected at 13 million in 2026, rising to 13.2 million by 2028. The second scenario predicts these figures to be 0.2 million lower.

The first scenario predicts an increase in unemployment from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, dropping to 12.8% in 2028, while the second scenario suggests a gradual rise in unemployment from 12.6% to 13.1% over two years.

In the first scenario, the nominal average monthly wage adjusted for inflation is expected to increase annually by 6.5-8.9%, while the second scenario forecasts a rise of 4.6-5.1%.

The resolution does not specify which scenario will serve as the basis for preparing the state budget draft for 2026.